World Cup Predictions: Part III of V

On now to Groups E and F and the halfway point of my World Cup coverage:

Group E:

1. Ecuador—How do I put this in a comprehensible manner? In South American football, there are 3 tiers of teams: Tier 1 (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Chile), Tier 2 (Ecuador, Paraguay, and sort of Peru and Venezuela), and Tier 3 (Bolivia). Ecuador is the probably the best of Tier 2, and they’re certainly getting better every year, but they’re still not at the same level as any of the Tier 1 teams. That’s not to say the team isn’t capable of squeaking by into the knockout rounds. It’s just not likely. They lack a solid goalkeeper as well as a defender who plays against top-level competition. Skipper Antonio Valencia is a very capable midfielder, but his fellow cast is just above average. The team also lacks a truly great forward, unless Felipe Caicedo, who currently plays in the UAE, counts.
• Player to Watch: Antonio Valencia
2. France—With 14 World Cup appearances, a 1998 victory when they hosted and 4 top 4 finishes otherwise, France has been successful in the Cup. Hugo Lloris is one of the best goalkeepers around, and he will be ably defended by the likes of Eliaquim Mangala, Bacary Sagna, Laurent Koscielny, and youngsters Raphaël Varane and Lucas Digne. The inclusion of Patrice Evra, who had a dreadful season with ManU, instead of Gaël Clichy, Adil Rami, or even Kurt Zouma is truly strange. The midfield, though lacking injured superstar Franck Ribéry, rising stars Clément Grenier and Geoffrey Kondogbia, and the ever-punchable Samir Nasri, is still quite strong with Yohan Cabaye, Antoine Griezmann, Blaise Matuidi, and Paul Pogba (probably my favorite young player to watch; his “no club is ever good enough” attitude, though, is another story entirely). Karim Benzema and Olivier Giroud should score enough, though I can’t help but feel that Alexandre Lacazette or André-Pierre Gignac would have made a nice attacking addition. Though an easy decision for any manager worth his weight in horse shit, the exclusion of Samir Nasri will work wonders for the squad. Nasri is a little git who sows disunion within a squad and, despite his skill, isn’t really worth it in the end.

• Players to Watch: Paul Pogba and Karim Benzema
3. Honduras—They have no chance whatsoever. This is the country’s 3^rd Cup appearance, and it has a combined record of 0-3-3, not even managing to score in South Africa. I expect them to suffer a similar fate this time around.
• Player to Watch: see corresponding comment for Costa Rica
4. Switzerland—Surprisingly, the Swiss are ranked #6 in the FIFA World Rankings right now. But when you look at their squad, it becomes rather less surprising. Diego Benaglio is a capable keeper, but I hope Yann Sommer gets the majority of the starts. Stephan Lichtsteiner has long been a reliable staple of the country’s defense and will be joined by, among others, youngster Ricardo Rodríguez. I hope Fabian Schär also gets a good amount of playtime as he has a bright future ahead of him. The midfield is Switzerland’s silver bullet, and the young talent available assures that this trend will continue. Captain Gökhan Inler is great and all, but I expect Xherdan Shaqiri and Granit Xhaka to have breakout tournaments, especially Shaqiri. While their attack isn’t the best, the incredibly young foursome led by 22-year-old Haris Seferović should have enough in the tank to score some goals.

• Player to Watch: Xherdan Shaqiri

Group E Overall Thoughts:

Strangely, this is both a rather interesting and a rather boring group. Honduras is the worst team in the tournament (Algeria are the only other side even close). They will struggle to score even once. The rest of the group is up for grabs, though I think Ecuador stands less of a chance than most do.

1. Switzerland: 2-1-0 (ahead on goal difference)
2. France: 2-1-0
3. Ecuador: 1-0-2
4. Honduras: 0-0-3

Group F:

1. Argentina—Argentina has, since the essentially the beginning, been a one-man show, at least in the World Cup. First there was Luis Monti (1930-34), then a huge gap (1938-74), then Mario Kempes (1974-82) who overlapped some with Daniel Passarella (1978-86), followed by the legend Diego Maradona (1982-94) who had some help from Sergio Batista (1986-90). Now, of course, there is Lionel Messi. Messi is an astonishingly good player. Many people say he’s the best player in the world right now. I’m in the opposing camp, which we shall soon get to. In the past, this Argentinian star system has served them decently well, with 2 wins (1978, 1986) in 15 tourneys. It will not serve them well in this deep tournament. As such, it’s a good thing they’re not simply a one-man team. Though decidedly weak at goalkeeper and not exactly strong in defense. Ezequiel Garay, Pablo Zabaleta, and Martín Demichelis are all capable, but not one of them is absolutely great. Garay is inconsistent, Zabaleta just doesn’t have the talent, and Demichelis is 33. The strength of the team, of course, is going forward. It doesn’t really matter how many goals the back section allows, because the front 6 will be able to score more. Javier Mascherano, a good but horrendously dirty player, with anchor at CDM. Ángel di María will be the catalyst for an explosive offense capable of scoring the most in the tournament. He will be joined by Maxi Rodríguez, Fernando Gago, and Ricky Álvarez. While their middle is certainly great, Argentina easily has the tournament’s best all-around set of attackers. Lionel Messi is a known quantity, at least insofar as he is a speedy, slimy, short playmaker who can score from even the most unpromising of positions. But unlike Argentine teams of past Cups, this one has another 3 forwards with enough firepower to char the defense of pretty much any side in the tournament. In South Africa, Gonzalo Higuaín scored a hat-trick against South Korea. He was 22. Now he’s 26 and is even better now. Similarly, Liverpool star Sergio Agüero is 26 now too and is coming off the best season of his career. Though he’ll probably come off the bench in relief of Messi and Higuaín, I expect him to make an impact somewhere along the way. Lastly, PSG’s Ezequiel Lavezzi is easily the best 4^th forward in the tournament. On a different note, I was frankly rather surprised to see Nicolás Otamendi excluded from defense and Éver Banega (and, to some extent, Érik Lamela) from the middle, Banega especially. He would have solidified that fourth starting position and allowed the team to better utilize some of its other players as impact subs. That being said, it doesn’t hurt the team that much.

• Players to Watch (other than Lionel Messi): Gonzalo Higuaín, Ángel di María, Sergio Agüero, and Ezequiel Lavezzi
2. Bosnia and Herzegovina—This is Bosnia and Herzegovina’s first ever World Cup. Virtually every single squad member for the former Yugoslav republic was in some way a victim of the Bosnian Genocide (1992-95). I personally think they’re an up-and-coming team with loads of potential. That being my opinion, I think they are being wildly underestimated by most. Sure, maybe my judgment is a little clouded since I want them to succeed for their country that has undergone so much, but I do honestly believe they will do much better than most people think, both because they’re actually really good and promising and because they are fighting for nearly 10-thousand of their fallen brethren, some of whom were close friends and family. As for the squad, goalkeeper Asmir Begović doesn’t get nearly the recognition he deserves, especially as he’s the main reason Stoke City hasn’t been relegated from the BPL several seasons in a row. Just as with a number of teams in the tournament, B&H are relatively weak in defense. Captain Emir Spahić is a good player, but he’s 33 and has little to work with around him. Veterans like Mensur Mujdža (30) and youngsters like Ermin Bičakčić (24) and Ognjen Vranješ as well as Sead Kolašinac (20) and Muhamed Bešić (21) will have to play well if their good midfield and underrated forwards are to have a chance. Speaking of the midfield, Miralem Pjanić will lead the way in conjuction with Zvjezdan Misimović. The teams two strikers will need to score consistently if B&H are to have a chance. Luckily they will. Edin Džeko is the team’s all-time leading goal-scorer and Vedad Ibišević isn’t too shabby himself (He also doesn’t make for a bad article subject. For more see ESPN the Magazine).
• Players to Watch: Edin Džeko and Miralem Pjanić (also Asmir Begović)
3. Iran—These matches are Iran’s to win. What I mean is: they’re probably going to go winless, unless they tie a match by some strange magic. They qualified because Asia they happened to beat some of the other bad teams in Asia to secure one of the two spots not effectively reserved for South Korea and Japan. They have no chance even though this is a relatively weak group.

• Player to Watch: see corresponding section for Costa Rica
4. Nigeria—Ghana’s only true challengers for the title of the “Class of Africa”, Nigeria is still . They are indeed deserving of the title, but not of the spoiler claims I’ve been hearing and reading. Sure, they have some strong players, but they’re lacking too much in too many other positions. Vincent Enyeama is a competent goalkeeper, but he’s not great. The starting defense will likely be Joseph Yobo, Efe Ambrose, Azubuike Egwuekwe, and Godfrey Odoabona. Have you ever of any of them (other than Yobo if you’re well-versed in the BPL)? Good, me neither. I will admit, though, that they’re anything but weak up front. John Obi Mikel is a relatively underrated player (given he plays for Chelsea) and Victor Moses has the potential to be the best African player of his generation. Ogneyi Onazi, just 21, has the potential to do great things, but probably not yet. Up front, the class is brought by one man and one man alone: Ahmed Musa. The Russian League player is just 21 but already plays like a 24 or a 25 year old. He needs to improve his goal-scoring to the level of his teammate Emmanuel Emenike, though, if Nigeria are to have the numbers on their side at the end of regulation.
1. Players to Watch: Victor Moses and Ahmed Musa 

Group F Overall Thoughts:

Argentina wins the group easily. If B&H are as underrated as I believe I think they progress even if Nigeria isn’t as overrated as I say.

1. Argentina: 3-0-0
2. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2-0-1
3. Nigeria: 1-0-2
4. Iran: 0-0-3